ETC Army Predictions


The Irish 40k team for the Border Shield and Six Nations teams have been announced. It's exactly the team I would have chosen and represents the absolute best available. I assume the Nordies are suitably terrified by this year's dream team.

1. Mike Tangney
2. Paul Quigley
3. Richard Flood
4. Jannick Rottgen
5. Alec Cornelius
6. Dan Ahern
7. Philip Johnston
8. Peter Scott

It is said that one should prepare to fight the next war, not the last war. Bollix to that. 
By looking carefully at the last war, you see how to win the next one. So, what should they bring? It's pretty easy. Let's look at the highest scoring lists from last year's ETC.

Army Games Points/army AVG points/battle
Grey Knights 119 1329 11.1681
Witch Hunters 30 335 11.1667
Tau 6 66 11.0000
Dark Eldar 70 730 10.4286
Black Templars 46 473 10.2826
Eldar 83 842 10.1446
Blood Angels 130 1315 10.1154
Space Wolves 142 1436 10.1127
Chaos Space Marines 95 957 10.0737
Orks 131 1295 9.8855
Chaos Daemons 30 290 9.6667
Imperial Guard 130 1196 9.2000
Tyranids 66 590 8.9394
Space Marines 52 456 8.7692
Necrons 6 52 8.6667

Immediately, I strip out the Tau and Witch-hunters. The former are too small a sample, the latter no longer exist. This gives us seven codexes running ahead of the win-loss curve. I pick all of them.

There are five power armoured armies, Grey Knights, Black Templars, Blood Angels, Space Wolves and Chaos Space Marines. Both types of Eldar are in, Dark and Regular. That leaves one space which we all know has to be given to the Necrons.

With that list, we turn to the players. We've got six codexes which have obvious matches. Each of the below is the best in the country with their army and their armies are on the list. Let's divide them out.

Necrons: Paul
Grey Knights: Floody
Eldar: Jannick
Dark Eldar: Alec
Space Wolves: Phil
Chaos: Peter

That leaves two players without armies and two armies to assign. Both Dan and Mike are strong players who have successfully played several codexes so this isn't likely to prove difficult. I'd give Mike the Templars and Dan the Angels. No real reason for it apart from a sneaking suspicion that Dan has access to a Blood Angels army in Cork and the DGG have at least two or three Templar armies knocking about the club.

Black Templars: Mike
Blood Angels: Dan

We won't be going into any detail as to the likely composition of those armies. But I suspect that the tournament veterans amongst us already have a few ideas. They might also wonder at the inclusion of the Dark Eldar, a codex which is proving a mite vulnerable of late. I'm including it on the assumption that it's used as an early attacking list.

The team will also need Imperial Guard (Leafblower) and Eldar (Footdar) counter lists. Dark Eldar can deal with the latter, very well. I also suspect that we can find a Necron build that would make the Guard cry.

(Credit to http://etc2011-results.iis.cz/index.php for the stats.)

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